This article is concerned with choosing a mix of weapons, subject to constraints, when the targets to be attacked are known imprecisely. It is shown that the correct method for optimizing the mix of weapons involves a pair of nested optimization problems (two-stage optimization). Two methods for optimizing the expected utility of a mix are discussed. The first involves a simultaneous attack model, in which it is implicitly assumed that all weapons are used at once. The second involves a sequential attack model, in which targets appear in random order and are attacked one at a time. Particular attention is given to the question of the appropriate mix of general-purpose and special-purpose weapons. 相似文献
Procedures for solving multiple criteria problems are receiving increasing attention. Two major solution approaches are those involving prior articulation and progressive articulation of preference information. A progressive articulation (interactive) optimization approach, called the Paired Comparison Method (PCM) is compared to the prior articulation approach of a priori utility function measurement in a quality control decision environment from the perspective of the decision maker. The three major issues investigated included: (1) the ease of use of each method, (2) the preferences of solutions obtained, and (3) the insight provided by the methodology into the nature and structure of the problem. The problem setting involved management students who were rquired to determine an acceptance sampling plan using both methods. The PCM provided the most preferred solutions and was considered easier to use and understand. The prior articulation of preference method was found to give more insight into the problem structure. The results suggest that a hybrid approach, combining both prior preference assessment and an interactive procedure exploiting the advantages of each, should be employed to solve multiple criteria problems. 相似文献
Capacity expansion models typically minimize the discounted cost of acquisition and operation over a given planning horizon. In this article we generalize this idea to one in which a capital supply curve replaces the usual discount rate. A capital supply curve is a means to model financial outlook, investment limits, and risk. We show that when such a curve is included in a capacity expansion model, it will, under certain conditions, provide a less capital intensive solution than one which incorporates a discount rate. In this article, we also provide an algorithm that solves capacity expansion models that incorporate a capital supply curve. The attractive feature of this algorithm is that it provides a means to utilize the “discount rate” models efficiently. Throughout, we give applications in power generation planning and computational experience for this application is also presented. 相似文献
A Student's t-test proposed by Ogawa is considered for the hypothesis Ho: σ=σo against the alternative hypothesis H1: σ ≠ σo, where σ is the scale parameter of the Extremevalue distribution of smallest values with known location parameter μ. The test is based on a few sample quantiles chosen from a large sample so as to give asymptotically maximum power to the test when the number of sample quantiles is fixed. A table which facilitates the computation of the test statistic is given. Several schemes for determining the ranks of the sample quantiles by the optimal spacings are compared and the effect of the bias of the estimate of σ on the test is investigated through a Monte Carlo study. 相似文献
Exporting Democracy: Fulfilling America's Destiny. By Joshua Muravchik, American Enterprise Institute (1991) ISSN 0–8447–3734–8. $12.95.
Generals in the Palacio. By Roderick Ai Camp. Oxford University Press, (1992), ISBN 0–19–507300–2, £45.
L'Armement en France. Genèse, Ampleur et Coût d'une Industrie By François Chesnais and Claude Serfati, Editions Nathan, Collection Economie/Sciences Sociales, Paris (1992), ISBN 2–09–190086–9.
The Têt Offensive. Intelligence Failure in War. By James Wirtz, Cornell University Press, New York (1991), ISBN 0–8014–2486–0. $38.50.
Restructuring of arms producton in Western Europe. Edited by Michael Brzoska and Peter Lock. Oxford University Press, Oxford (1992), ISBN 0–1982–9147–7. £25.00.
What is Proper Soldiering? A study of new perspectives for the future uses of the Armed Forces of the 1990s. By Michael Harbottle. The Centre for International Peacebuilding, Chipping Norton (1992), £3.50.
The Strategic Defence Initiative By Edward Reiss, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1992), ISBN 0–521–41097–5. £30.00. 相似文献
Consider an auction in which increasing bids are made in sequence on an object whose value θ is known to each bidder. Suppose n bids are received, and the distribution of each bid is conditionally uniform. More specifically, suppose the first bid X1 is uniformly distributed on [0, θ], and the ith bid is uniformly distributed on [Xi?1, θ] for i = 2, …?, n. A scenario in which this auction model is appropriate is described. We assume that the value θ is un known to the statistician and must be esimated from the sample X1, X2, …?, Xn. The best linear unbiased estimate of θ is derived. The invariance of the estimation problem under scale transformations in noted, and the best invariant estimation problem under scale transformations is noted, and the best invariant estimate of θ under loss L(θ, a) = [(a/θ) ? 1]2 is derived. It is shown that this best invariant estimate has uniformly smaller mean-squared error than the best linear unbiased estimate, and the ratio of the mean-squared errors is estimated from simulation experiments. A Bayesian formulation of the estimation problem is also considered, and a class of Bayes estimates is explicitly derived. 相似文献
The existing literature concentrates on determining sharp upper bounds for EVPI in stochastic programming problems. This seems to be a problem without an application. Lower bounds, which we view as having an important application, are only the incidental subject of study and in the few instances that are available are obtained at an extremely high cost. In order to suggest a rethinking of the course of this research, we analyze the need for bounds on EVPI in the context of its significance in decision problems. 相似文献